Wednesday, March 27, 2013

CFAI Investment Research Challenge New York Regional Winners

Outside of writing this blog one of my activities is volunteering at the New York Society of Security Analysts (NYSSA) currently as the Vice Chairman.  NYSSA is one of the founding societies of what later became the CFA Institute and has approximately 9,000 members.  It is committed to the promotion of best practices and the highest professional and ethical standards in the investment industry.
 
Eleven years ago NYSSA introduced the Investment Research Challenge as a way to promote best practices among the next generation of analysts.  Since then it has grown into a global competition organized by the CFA Institute.  The CFAI Research Challenge is an annual educational program where leading investment professionals teach business and finance students how to research and report on a publicly traded company. 
 
Today I have the honor of being with the team from Fordham University, the winners of the New York Regional Final at the Nasdaq market site for the closing bell.  Ken Boswell, Paul Kearney, Jonathan LaSala and Elaine Lou did an exceptional job researching, reporting and presenting on Microsoft with the guidance of their faculty advisor Roberst Fuest and mentor Michael Kiernan.  All of their hard work, effort and sacrifice these past few months is extremely impressive.  Congratulations and good luck to them at the Global Finals in London in April!

Monday, March 18, 2013

Cyprus??

So a crisis in another small country threatens to take down Europe.  This time auditioning for the role of Serbia,  host country for the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in 1914, will be Cyprus.  That's Cyprus in the highlighted box in the lower right below Turkey.   Cyprus has a bit over 1 million people and a GDP of $23.5 billion making it a bit smaller than Mozambique, but bigger than Burkina Faso and less than one tenth that of Greece.  However, by dint of being a part of the Eurozone it is certainly punching above its weight in the global economy.
 
Source: CIA World Factbook
News broke over the weekend that for the first time as part of a Eurozone bailout, depositor funds would take a hit through a so called 'bail in' (George Orwell would be proud).  Deposits under the €100,000 guarantee amount would pay a 6.75% tax and those over a 9.99% tax.  Although depositors would get equity in the bank as compensation.  (Links to several posts on the topic are at the bottom)
 
You may ask why would those in charge call all of the deposit insurance programs in the Eurozone into question by having those covered pay?  Well, Cyprus is known as an offshore banking sector with a reputation for laundering money, particularly for the Russian mafia.  As of January 2013, €20 billion of Cyprus' €68 billion in deposits were from the rest of the world, believed to be primarily from Russia. You would think those offshore accounts would be the ones to take the hit.  A German politician's remarks about burning "Russian black money" point in that direction.  So then why hit the locals and little guys?  The financial sector is huge in Cyprus and by not having outside depositors take the full brunt of the pain it appears someone would like to keep the possibility of this business alive at some point in the future.  However, even if that is the case, I am not sure how losing €2 billion will go over in Mother Russia, especially if it is money being laundered.  The Russian mafia does not have a gentle forgiving reputation. 
 
In any case, putting aside the obvious pain being suffered by smaller depositors, the big risk, as it was with Greece, is contagion.  That this idea of covered depositors paying part of the price in a bank bailout, sorry bail in, spreads to other peripheral countries.  Will depositors in Spain or Italy decide they better get their euros out while they still get them at full value?  Or will they be assuaged by the Eurocrats, that Cyprus is a one off case.  We will need to keep track.
 
 
Don't Get Too Excited About Cyprus - Humble Student of the Markets
Report From Paris - David Kotok on The Big Picture
The War on Common Sense Continues - Tim Duy's Fed Watch

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Still Risk On

Risky assets have been on the move lately.  This can be seen in multiple asset classes.  The first sign that we are in a Risk On environment is the widening of spreads on US Treasury Debt versus other governments' debt.  US Treasuries are considered by many the ultimate safe haven and so tend to enjoy a premium when investors are worried.  The premium shrinks or disappears when the worries go away.  

Source: Wall Street Journal
The second sign is the S&P 500 Index's relentless move towards new highs.  The last high was 1,565 in 2007.  We are less than one percent away.


Source: StockCharts.com
With earning's growth expected to be minimal, this has brought up Price Earnings ratio, but not to exorbitant levels. 

Source: Dr. Ed's Blog

On the economic front, while the 'fiscal cliff' and 'sequester' would appear to have taken away much of our margin for error on the growth front, there are positive signs coming from the private sector.  Construction employment, which tends to pay well, is coming back, along with the housing market.  And both would appear to be still early in the game.



On a more global and esoteric note, South Korean exports, which tend to be a leading indicator of global exports, are growing.  This is despite the increased geopolitical tensions on the Korean Peninsula.  North Korea recently cancelled the Korean War ceasefire and cut off the hotline to South Korea.

Source: Humble Student of the Markets


Other signs of healing include Ireland's first successful ten year debt auction since 2010, Spanish and Italian ten year yields both nicely under 5%, and yields on 'junk' bonds hitting a record low of 5.56%.  Overall, investors seem to be taking a positive view of things.  With things relatively calm on the investment front, I would urge you to make sure you know what your goals are for your investments, what the time frames for those goals are and have a plan in place and know what you will do given different scenarios.  It is much easier and better to do this without the influence of sharp emotions and media hype.

In Japan meanwhile, the Nikkei continues to move up.

Source:StockCharts.com

With the Yen moving down at the same time, the currency affect needs to be hedged out.  While it does not track the Nikkei, the Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ)* does hedge out the currency risk and has been a good way to play this rise. 
 
Source: StockCharts.com

While DXJ has moved up significantly since the middle of November, the valuations are just reaching the average for the last five years:

Source:ETF Research Center




Source:ETF Research Center
 
While the speed and size of the move would indicate caution, the valuations would indicate, that there is still more room to go before we get into overvalued territory.  That DXJ has increased  almost 40% in approximately 4 months and has only now reached its average valuations for the last five years, gives an indication of how far sold it was.  Currently, allof this has been based on the election results, statements, intentions and the nominee for Bank of Japan Governor.  We have not seen much hard action.  The situation needs to be watched carefully for continued follow through and success on the part of the Japanese authorities and economy.







*Disclosure: I own DXJ and some vertical call spreads on DXJ in my accounts.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

What's Your Investment Time Frame?

Two good posts on investment time frames in the last two days.  Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture started it off with "Why Time Frames Matter to You" and Roger Nusbaum of Random Roger expanded on it with "Time (Frame) Management".  In my opinion, the key points to take away are:  decide what the right time frame is for you, concentrate on what affects your investments over that time frame and pay attention to them. 
 
It is very easy in today's age of instant messaging, 24/7 media and twitter to get caught up in the idea that every little piece of information matters.  Not necessarily.  If you are a short term trader it may matter, while if you are a long term investor it probably doesn't, unless it is a big change or is the confirmation of a change to your underlying reason to buy.  What this constant barrage of data does do is give an advantage to the long term investor that can sift through the noise and take what opportunities the market gives them.  Individual stocks, sectors, or asset classes knocked down based on a single unconfirmed data point, can give you a nice entry point, provided you have done your homework and are paying attention.  Or if you don't have time to pay that close attention, then it can provide a nice entry point for your advisor

Thursday, March 7, 2013

Some Thoughts on Picking an Advisor


Now that even  Jack Brennan, chairman emeritus of low cost do it yourself king Vanguard Funds, has come out saying most people need an advisor, you know something has changed.  When picking an advisor, there are many good sources for the standard questions to ask, including the SEC website.  But after spending almost twenty years as an advisor and learning alot about the industry, I thought I would mention some of the things I think you should look for when picking an advisor. 

The first item I would review is whether the advisor is a broker or a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). There used to be two main distinctions between them, but some of that is blurring.  The first big difference is in the level of responsibility.  Traditionally, a broker only needed to determine that an investment was suitable for the client before recommending it.  An RIA however, is held to a higher fiduciary standard to act in the client’s best interest.  So while a large cap mutual fund may be suitable for a client, if it is the fifteenth one they would own, it would not be in their best interest.  The second big difference was in how they were paid.  Brokers would be paid for completing a transaction, while RIA’s would be paid a percentage of the assets they managed for you.  Therefore, brokers worked in a system where they were paid for selling to clients and had a lower level of responsibility.   RIA’s, meanwhile, were paid on how big the pile of assets was.  They were, therefore, incentivised to grow that pile.  Now large brokers can offer a full spectrum of services ranging from suitability to fiduciary responsibility.  They can also charge in different ways, from straight commissions to a percent of the assets they manage.  The lines have blurred alot and further rulings on fiduciary standards may further muddy the waters.  If you decide to go with a broker, I would just make sure you know which hat (broker or fiduciary) they are wearing.

If you plan to choose the investments and only want someone to bounce ideas off and execute transactions, then a broker may be a better fit.  If you are looking for someone to take control and manage your portfolio for you based on agreed upon goals, then an RIA may be better.

Once you have that straightened out, then I would put a list together of potential advisors to consider.  Depending upon what you are looking for, you can search on the Internet.  It can get overwhelming.  Therefore, I would also ask friends for recommendations.  Once you have a list put together, go to the Securities and Exchange website for some basic information and questions to ask.  It is a good source of information.   To get a copy of an RIA’s Form ADV (their ‘official’ brochure) go here.  To check on brokers go here.

Once you have this information and ruled out the obvious bad matches, consider these points:

·         Philosophical fit – Do they look at investing the same way you do?  Are you comfortable with how they say they manage money?  If you are looking for high returns and the advisor is talking about conservative asset allocation and wealth preservation, then you are probably not a good match.  No matter how good the advisor, not being on the same page will just lead to frustration, bad decisions and losses.  Just because they are a good fit for your friend or brother-in-law, does not mean they are a good fit for you.  In addition, do not count on most advisors turning you away if you are not a good fit.  Many will take you on no matter the fit.  Some in the hopes of changing you to be the client they want.   Like a romantic involvement where one partner wants to change the other, this does not end well either. 

·         Do they know what they are talking about?  Like most professions, investing has its own set of acronyms and jargon.  This makes it easier for sales-types to impress the uninitiated by spouting the latest jargon and buzzwords without really understanding them.  Ask them what the terms mean in plain English.  Then ask how that applies to your portfolio.  Then check out the answer when you get home.  If they cannot explain it in plain English, that is a potential warning sign that they do not really understand it.  If it does not match what you research later, you can ask for clarification, but be ready to move on.  After you have met with a few advisors, you can compare the answers to get an even deeper understanding and weed them out faster.

·         Another thing to do is to check their credentials.  Many are easy to get and not that helpful.  Go for quality, not quantity.  The ones that stand out are:

o   CFA – The Chartered Financial Analyst designation is the global old standard for investing.  You want to see that the person with final decision-making authority over your investments has this.  From the CFA Institute website:
“Earning the charter requires demonstrating four years of professional investment experience, committing to uphold a comprehensive code of ethics, and passing three levels of rigorous exams that test an advanced curriculum of investment management and analysis skills. This achievement takes multiple years of persistent effort and hundreds of hours of study per exam level.” 

*Full disclosure, I am a CFA holder since 1998 and on the Board of one of the founding societies of what later became the CFA Institute. 

o   CFP – Many consider the Certified Financial Planner designation the standard for financial planning in the United States.  There are significant requirements to earn the designation, including a BS degree, three years experience, demonstrated theoretical and practical knowledge of planning and passing a comprehensive examination. 
 
·         For further peace of mind, make sure that the advisor has no more than a limited power of attorney over your funds (so they can buy and sell investments and pull their fee, but not transfer out funds) and you get independent statements from the custodian (or can check on custodian’s website).

·         Also, once you have decided on an advisor, make sure they will create an Investment Policy Statement for your portfolio.  This should lay out what the objectives are and how the advisor plans to go about achieving them.

So to sum it up, you should determine what you want from an advisor, get recommendations, interview a bunch of them to find out if they are a good match and know what they are talking about, and get a written plan of how the money is going to be managed and to what goal.  Simple.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

That was quick!

Well that was certainly a quick correction!  Score one for the Fed and its liquidity wave.  Less than a 3% drop in the S&P 500 was all it took and the buyers came in and have taken us to within 2.5% of the all time highs. 
Source: StockCharts.com
Meanwhile, the narrower, but better known Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken out to new highs this morning.  The media is all over it.  Even the relatively staid Wall Street Journal is in on the act with this little feature in the middle of its online page:

Source: Wall Street Journal 3/5/13
The Dow's breakout to new highs will undoubtedly attract a lot of attention from both the financial and mainstream media.  Given the relentless drumbeat of negative economic news in the media, this may come as quite the shock to many people.  It becomes clearer, when you remember that the main driver of media is to sell either ads or subscriptions.  Hype, outrageousness and promotion are all part of the playbook to get your attention and sell ads.  A good summary is posted on the site Abnormal Returns.  Keep this in mind as the media hypes the new highs theme. 
 
In the meantime, as has been noted here and elsewhere, the negative factors affecting the global economy keep piling up (fiscal cliff deal, sequester, gas prices, Italian elections, etc.).  Adding to that list, the Shanghai Composite broke through its 50 day moving average.  This is important for two reasons.  First is that over the last few years, the Shanghai Composite has been somewhat of a leading indicator.  Second, it comes in response to China's renewed attempts at cooling its property market.  Anything slowing down one of the few engines of world growth is not a positive.

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

Keep all of this in mind as the you watch the market the next few days.  It will be extremely tempting to change your plan or add more risk to your portfolio than intended.  In many ways it is natural to get caught up in all of the excitement.  The key however, is to stick to whatever long term plan you made in more peaceful times.  Remember, purely emotional decision making is the enemy of good investing.  In the meantime, stick to the plan, hang ten and enjoy the ride!


Garrett McNamara riding an approximate 100 foot wave.
Source: Guardian
 

Friday, March 1, 2013

A Different Debt Bomb?

In its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, the New York Federal Reserve noted that outstanding consumer debt increased slightly, breaking the downtrend in place from the peak in 2008. 



Understandably so, most focused on the mortgage market. The foreclosure pipeline, so crucial to a revitalized housing market, although still large and far above 2006 levels has continued to shrink.  While there is still a long way to go, this measure continues to head in the right direction.



Away from mortgage debt however, there is one portion of debt that never saw a decline and continues to grow:  Student Loans.


While still dwarfed by the over $8 trillion of mortgage debt, student loans, at nearly $1 trillion, now constitute the second largest balance of household debt.  Given the historical value assigned to a college education, and higher compensation associated with it, this would not be quite so worrisome were it not for the change in the delinquency rate over the same time frame.



Approximately 35% of those borrowers under the age of 30 and in the process of repayment are over 90 days delinquent.  This is up significantly from the low 20% range just 8 years ago.  With the large increase in the unemployment rate among 20 - 24 year olds from 7.2% to a peak of 17.2%  during the Great Recession and currently at 14.2%, the delinquency rate may not be improving anytime soon.


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Also, keep in mind that unlike most other debt, student loans are generally not disposable in bankruptcy court. That debt will therefore be a drag on the household formation and spending patterns of this generation for a long time.  Something to keep in mind when looking at stocks that would normally benefit from those trends.